Today I'm going to walk through the Nunes-Ueno mobility model at a high-level. Maybe in later posts, if people are interested, I can get into the details a bit more.
Before we start, we should discuss why try to forecast your future mode share? Who cares how people will get to work in ten or twenty year's time?
If you are planning the future of your companies campus or your college campus or a district in your city, the assumptions about access and mobility actually have a huge impact in what you build and what kind of place you provide for your employees, your students or patients or visitors.
The vital sign for this kind of planning is mode share: the proportion of users in each transportation mode. The average American mode share is more that 80% driving alone. But average in this case and actually in everything that matters is pretty meaningless.
It's much more important to understand what the mode share is for your campus and from there make decisions about what you WANT it to be in the future.
To help us visualize the impact of commute mode share on a bunch of different variables like cost to build parking, cost of mobility programs, green house gas emissions and others, I've been working on this Mobility Model.
The idea is to calibrate the model with starting assumptions on population, mode share, parking supply and then in real time adjust the demand for driving or transit or biking up and down and test the impacts on program costs or emissions, or even parking permit prices. Check out the model and let me know what you think.